Did you hear the story this past week about the transportation security worker at Philadelphia's airport who snuck a baggie of white powder into a college student's computer bag? He then pulled it out while screening her further and demanded to know where she had gotten the powder. The student was in tears before he waved the bag in front of her saying, "I was just kidding and you should have seen the look on your face". Needless to say the TSA worker is no longer with the agency. You have to ask: "What was he thinking?" 

Let's take a more serious case, January 27, 1986 when a NASA manager contacted engineers at Morton Thiokol to ask the effects of cold weather on the solid rocket boosters, specifically the O-ring seal joints. Was it safe to launch the Challenger given the temperatures would be near freezing at launch time? No previous flight had been launched in temperatures below 53 degrees.  Besides, if the first O-ring failed, a second O-ring was supposed to seal in place. Several hours of discussion ensued with any objections to not launching denied. The reasons given to NASA for not launching were viewed as arbitrary and the risk was determined to be "acceptable". For you see at NASA, the idea of 'risk' or an 'anomaly' was the norm. So the question "is it safe to launch" (despite evidence to the contrary), gave way to 'there is no reason not to launch'. And the result? As we now all know, 73 seconds after launch, the Challenger exploded into a fireball. Again, one has to ask: "What were they thinking?"

In Jim Collins book, How the Mighty Fall, he articulates an illustration from Bill Gore of W. L. Gore and Associates that gives a helpful concept for decision making and risk taking. He calls it the Waterline principle:

"Think of being on a ship, and imagine that any decision gone bad will blow a hole in the side of the ship. If you blow a hole above the waterline (where the ship won't take on water and sink), you can patch the hole, learn from the experience, and sail on. But if you blow a hole below the waterline, you can find yourself facing gushing water pouring in, pulling you toward the ocean floor."

To be successful and move forward there will always be an element of 'risk'. In light of the decisions you make or any conflicing information Collins suggests three questions to ask:

1. What's the upside, if the events turn out well?

2. What's the downside, if events go very badly?

3. Can you live with the downside? Truly?

The Waterline principle applies to what we say or do as well as where we invest our time or money. It applies to the most important decisions we make regarding the influence we leave with our families, friends or colleagues at work. The Waterline principle will also help us make the best decisions as we reflect on how we lived our lives when it's all said and done.

So, are you 'staying' dry most of the time or 'taking on water' with most of the decisions you make and the way you're living your life?

rb